(IntegrityWeather.com) — A strong upper-level system swept across the forecast area on Friday, March 6th delivering primarily large hail and damaging wind reports across several Midwest states.
Forecast solutions depicted a fast-moving cold front at 3 days out which would confine the primary severe risk across parts of Kansas/Missouri and southward.
As we came close to the short-term, better agreement was noted amongst data to suggest that a notable severe weather threat would potentially materialize over eastern Nebraska/Iowa.
The setup was favorable for a couple of tornadoes with any storms that could become surface-based which we highlighted the highest chances over NE Kansas into SE Nebraska.
Overall, the tornado threat did not materialize. Why?
First off, we were working with a narrow window of tornado dynamics, so the storm development had to line up exactly with the dynamics which is a tough one to navigate and forecast.
Then the front came in quick which undercut most of the storms that initially developed in the warm sector across Kansas/Nebraska and led to hailers, rather than tornadoes.
I know a lot of you were ready and prepared for what could have materialized yesterday, but the bottom line is each system works differently.
