A warm front is forecast to advance northward into southern MN by early this afternoon as surface dew points and instability increase along the boundary.
While the exact positioning of the front remains somewhat uncertain, strengthening mid-level forcing will support convective initiation across south/southwest MN after 2pm this afternoon.
The initial development will likely be isolated to widely scattered capable of producing very large hail, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and a few tornadoes.
The greatest tornado threat is focused across south/southeast Minnesota into western Wisconsin where enhanced low-level vorticity will be maximized along the warm front.
During the evening, activity is expected to congeal into a linear complex while moving eastward with a transition toward wind and hail as the system tracks across the region.
– Meteorologist Maurer –
