A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward during the period, as surface dew points and instability surge northward ahead of an intensifying surface low and advancing warm front.
While convective development may be initially delayed by a lingering capping inversion, storm initiation is possible after 2pm across east Iowa into southern Wisconsin.
Primary coverage will feature isolated to widely scattered supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes (some strong) are anticipated throughout the moderate zone.
The greatest tornado threat is currently focused from east/northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin, where low-level shear profiles are forecast to be most favorable.
Additional development may occur downstream into the evening across central Iowa, where environmental conditions will favor all severe hazards.
The main activity is expected to congeal into a line with a primary risk for hail and wind as it moves eastward into the Great Lakes late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Meteorologist Maurer
