A potent upper-level trough will trek eastward from the northern plains today, pushing a surface warm front across the center to north portion of the risk area.
Scattered severe storm development is anticipated along and north of this boundary by late this afternoon (after 6 pm) with activity gradually expanding southward along an advancing cold front.
While the primary severe activity extends across portions of Illinois and Indiana, isolated to scattered thunderstorm initiation remains possible across far eastern Iowa late this evening.
Large hail and severe wind gusts up to 70 mph will be the primary hazards, though strong shear near the warm frontal zone will support a brief, localized tornado threat.
Meteorologist Maurer
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