An amplified shortwave trough is forecast to work across the Plains into the Midwest today as a substantial warm sector develops northward.
In response, convection is expected to initiate after 1pm ahead of a cold front capable of very large hailstones, damaging straight-line gusts of 60-80 mph and a few tornadoes.
A more notable tornado risk may also evolve with any pre-frontal discrete cells that initiate early this afternoon from east/northeast Iowa into Wisconsin, where conditions will favor rotating updrafts
The primary complex of activity will shift eastward this evening, with a lingering damaging wind threat continuing downstream into Illinois this evening before gradually waning late tonight.
– Meteorologist Maurer –
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